Friday, October 19, 2007

C.C.'s problems

So what are we to make of C.C. Sabathia’s three-start whiff in the postseason? There are lots of theories, but the one I’m sticking with is this:
He’s out of gas.
Sabathia’s workload has finally caught up with him.
After throwing a major league-high 241 innings in the regular season Sabathia has pitched 15 more in the postseason, hiking his season total to 256. That’s almost 50 more innings than Sabathia’s previous career high.
Throw in about 30 more innings in spring training, and the Indians’ No.1 starter is at 286 innings. That’s a lot of wear and tear on one arm, even if it is attached to a body as big and durable as Sabathia’s.
And all that mileage seems to be taking its toll in the postseason. After averaging seven innings per start in the regular season Sabathia has averaged just five innings in his three postseason starts.
There hasn’t been much dropoff in his velocity, but there has been a dramatic dropoff in his ability to control and command his pitches. In those 15 postseason innings Sabathia has walked 13 batters, after only walking 37 batters in his 34 regular season starts.
Sabathia looks like a pitcher who has hit the wall this season. So even if the Indians advance to the World Series, there are no guarantees about how effective Sabathia would be if they get there.